NeutralQualified moversAug 13, 2026Daily report

Market Value Divergence: Estimated Set Value Changes Highlight Sector Dynamics

Today's analysis reveals significant disparities in set performance, with Mega Evolution and Pitch Black diverging sharply from market averages.

Market state

Among 1,177 qualified market movers, decliners led 686 to 491 with a recorded 7-day direction (58.3%).

Tracked

43,022

Qualified up

491

Qualified down

686

Top move

+39.2%

View set details

Qualified mover breadth

7-day direction among qualified movers from PokeFocus daily market snapshot

491

qualified movers up

41.7% of qualified movers

686

qualified movers down

58.3% of qualified movers

Based on 1,177 qualified movers with a recorded 7-day direction. The remaining 41,845 tracked cards are not counted as flat; they are outside this movement view and may include near-flat or otherwise unqualified records.

Since the previous report

What changed

24 fewer cards rose than in the previous report (491 today).
New to the lead coverage: SV03 Obsidian Flames (2023) and SWSH10 Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery (2022).
Set Value Tracker is today's primary read; every available core market domain is covered with non-duplicative evidence.

Set read

Sets in Motion

The current market average for estimated tracked-card basket value across 142 sets shows a slight decline of -0.2%.

In contrast, the five strongest performers include Prize Pack Series Cards, which increased by +6.4% with 826 sales, and Crown Zenith, up +4.7% with 1,215 sales.
Conversely, ME05 Pitch Black experienced a significant drop of -7.4% with 12,790 sales, while ME02 Phantasmal Flames fell by -5.1% with 4,632 sales, highlighting a stark contrast in demand dynamics.

Grading read

Grading Watch

The 30-day PSA 10 premium snapshot reveals significant disparities, with Mew ex showing a raw price of $8.99 and a PSA 10 price of $463.50, resulting in a premium multiple of 51.6x from 242 PSA 10 sales.

N's Zekrom follows with a raw price of $10.00 and a PSA 10 price of $405.00, yielding a 40.5x premium from 17 sales.

Exact evidence6 rowsPSA 10 Grading Premiums

Evidence table — PSA 10 Grading Premiums

Mew ex

Raw: $8.99
PSA 10: $463.50
Premium: 51.6x
PSA 10 Sales: 242

N's Zekrom

Raw: $10.00
PSA 10: $405.00
Premium: 40.5x
PSA 10 Sales: 17

Larvitar

Raw: $7.00
PSA 10: $253.75
Premium: 36.3x
PSA 10 Sales: 4

Ditto

Raw: $19.99
PSA 10: $685.00
Premium: 34.3x
PSA 10 Sales: 5

Spidops ex

Raw: $11.49
PSA 10: $390.37
Premium: 34.0x
PSA 10 Sales: 4

Alakazam ex

Raw: $7.29
PSA 10: $225.00
Premium: 30.9x
PSA 10 Sales: 5

Exact values for PSA 10 Grading Premiums
Card	Raw	PSA 10	Premium	PSA 10 Sales
Mew ex	$8.99	$463.50	51.6x	242
N's Zekrom	$10.00	$405.00	40.5x	17
Larvitar	$7.00	$253.75	36.3x	4
Ditto	$19.99	$685.00	34.3x	5
Spidops ex	$11.49	$390.37	34.0x	4
Alakazam ex	$7.29	$225.00	30.9x	5

Momentum read

Top Movers

Among the top gainers, Morty's Conviction #201/162 from SV05 Temporal Forces surged to $3.51, marking a +39.2% increase, while Rare Candy #175/132 from ME01 Mega Evolution rose to $5.06, up +33.5%.

Shiinotic #194/191 from SV08 Surging Sparks also showed strength, reaching $4.34 with a +36.4% increase.

Morty's Conviction card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Rare Candy card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Volume read

Volume Watch

Poliwrath (Base Set) experienced a notable spike in sales, achieving 23 sales compared to a typical baseline of 7, resulting in 3.4 times the usual volume.

This increase coincided with a price rise of +7.7%, indicating heightened demand.

Exact evidence3 rowsVolume Spike Evidence

Evidence table — Volume Spike Evidence

Poliwrath

Set: Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG
Market: $40.98
Price Change: +7.7%
Volume Multiple: 3.4x
Current 7d Sales: 23
Typical 7d Sales: 7

Electabuzz

Set: Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG
Market: $9.59
Price Change: -24.3%
Volume Multiple: 3.6x
Current 7d Sales: 10
Typical 7d Sales: 3

Charizard

Set: Base Set Shadowless1999 Pokemon TCG
Market: $240.00
Price Change: 0.0%
Volume Multiple: 3.5x
Current 7d Sales: 38
Typical 7d Sales: 11

Exact values for Volume Spike Evidence
Card	Set	Market	Price Change	Volume Multiple	Current 7d Sales	Typical 7d Sales
Poliwrath	Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG	$40.98	+7.7%	3.4x	23	7
Electabuzz	Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG	$9.59	-24.3%	3.6x	10	3
Charizard	Base Set Shadowless1999 Pokemon TCG	$240.00	0.0%	3.5x	38	11

Price reset

Notable Declines

Fomantis #085/084 from ME05 Pitch Black saw a dramatic decline of -74.0% to $3.15, supported by a high sales volume of 658.

Cyndaquil #047 from ME Mega Evolution Promo also faced a -23.9% drop to $13.20, with 114 sales, indicating significant pullbacks in demand.

Fomantis card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Cyndaquil card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Set read

Set Spotlight: ME01 Mega Evolution (2025)

The ME01 Mega Evolution set has demonstrated resilience, with an average 7-day price change of +3.1% and a composite score of 28.

The top card, Mega Latias ex, reflects the set's overall performance, contributing to its positive trajectory.

Exact evidence1 rowME01 Mega Evolution Evidence

Evidence table — ME01 Mega Evolution Evidence

ME01 Mega Evolution2025 Pokemon TCG

Year: 2025
Top Card: Mega Latias ex
Cards Tracked: 35
Composite Score: 28.00
Average 7d Change: +3.1%
High Momentum Cards: 0

Sector read

Set Comparisons

ME01 Mega Evolution (2025) and SWSH11 Lost Origin Trainer Gallery (2022) both outperformed the market average with a +3.1% increase over 7 days.

In contrast, ME04 Chaos Rising (2026) underperformed by -2.5%, highlighting the variability in sector performance.

Sealed read

Sealed Movers

Sealed-product movement compares the 7-day sales median with the 30-day sales median.

Current prices, medians, and available sales windows are shown in the evidence rows below.

Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box product image — Sealed movers
Current price · 7-day median vs 30-day median · recent sales where available · PokeFocus sealed-product snapshots

Scarlet & Violet Booster Bundle product image — Sealed movers
Current price · 7-day median vs 30-day median · recent sales where available · PokeFocus sealed-product snapshots

Fair value read

Solid Value Plays

Current prices for Trevenant VMAX (Secret) at $6.95 show a modeled reference gap of 823.6% with a 56% confidence level.

Similarly, Lightning Energy (Secret) at $8.36 has a modeled reference gap of 685.2% with a 54% confidence level, indicating significant discrepancies in perceived value.

Exact evidence6 rowsCurrent Price vs Modeled Reference

Evidence table — Current Price vs Modeled Reference

Trevenant VMAX (Secret)

Market: $6.95
Confidence: 56%
Model Gap %: +823.6%
Modeled Reference: $64.19

Lightning Energy (Secret)

Market: $8.36
Confidence: 54%
Model Gap %: +685.2%
Modeled Reference: $65.64

Hoopa EX

Market: $7.11
Confidence: 51%
Model Gap %: +587.6%
Modeled Reference: $48.89

Arven

Market: $10.10
Confidence: 66%
Model Gap %: +518.7%
Modeled Reference: $62.49

Muk

Market: $10.47
Confidence: 67%
Model Gap %: +422.7%
Modeled Reference: $54.73

Origin Forme Dialga V

Market: $5.05
Confidence: 75%
Model Gap %: +459.0%
Modeled Reference: $28.23

Exact values for Current Price vs Modeled Reference
Card	Market	Confidence	Model Gap %	Modeled Reference
Trevenant VMAX (Secret)	$6.95	56%	+823.6%	$64.19
Lightning Energy (Secret)	$8.36	54%	+685.2%	$65.64
Hoopa EX	$7.11	51%	+587.6%	$48.89
Arven	$10.10	66%	+518.7%	$62.49
Muk	$10.47	67%	+422.7%	$54.73
Origin Forme Dialga V	$5.05	75%	+459.0%	$28.23

Pack read

Pack Value Plays

The Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister (ME04 Chaos Rising 2026) is priced at $20.24 for 3 packs, equating to $6.75 per pack.

In comparison, the Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack (ME05 Pitch Black 2026) is available at $7.23 for 1 pack, while the Checklane 2-Pack Blister (Miscellaneous Cards and Products 2018) costs $14.62 for 2 packs, resulting in $7.31 per pack.

Exact evidence15 rowsPrice per Pack — Sealed Product Comparison

Evidence table — Price per Pack — Sealed Product Comparison

Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon] product image

Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon]Blister Pack / $20.86

Set: ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $20.24
Packs: 3
$/Pack: $6.75

Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster Pack product image

Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $6.98

Set: ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.92
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.92

Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack product image

Pitch Black Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $7.08

Set: ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $7.23
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $7.23

Checklane 2-Pack Blister [Pawmot] (1-tab) product image

Checklane 2-Pack Blister [Pawmot] (1-tab)Blister Pack / $14.86

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $14.62
Packs: 2
$/Pack: $7.31

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Emboar & Inkay] product image

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Emboar & Inkay]Tin / $14.10

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $14.72
Packs: 2
$/Pack: $7.36

Surging Sparks Booster Pack product image

Surging Sparks Booster PackBooster Pack / $7.90

Set: SV08 Surging Sparks2024 Pokemon TCG
Market: $7.69
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $7.69

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Feraligatr & Budew] product image

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Feraligatr & Budew]Tin / $16.19

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $15.88
Packs: 2
$/Pack: $7.94

Pitch Black Half Booster Boxes product image

Pitch Black Half Booster BoxesBooster Box / $8.99

Set: ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $8.99
Packs: 36
$/Pack: $0.25

Greninja ex Battle Deck & 2 Booster Bundle product image

Greninja ex Battle Deck & 2 Booster BundleBooster Bundle / $15.99

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $15.99
Packs: 6
$/Pack: $2.67

Perfect Order Booster Pack product image

Perfect Order Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.08

Set: ME03 Perfect Order2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $5.36
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $5.36

Pokemon - Poke Ball Tin - Repeat Ball (Q4 2025) product image

Pokemon - Poke Ball Tin - Repeat Ball (Q4 2025)Tin / $22.65

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $22.64
Packs: 4
$/Pack: $5.66

Triple Whammy Tin [Slaking] product image

Triple Whammy Tin [Slaking]Tin / $23.16

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $23.26
Packs: 4
$/Pack: $5.82

Chaos Rising Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.23

Set: ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.13
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.13

Pitch Black Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.58

Set: ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.49
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.49

Journey Together Booster Pack product image

Journey Together Booster PackBooster Pack / $6.73

Set: SV09 Journey Together2025 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.61
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.61

Exact values for Price per Pack — Sealed Product Comparison
Product	Set	Market	Packs	$/Pack
Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon]Blister Pack / $20.86	ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG	$20.24	3	$6.75
Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $6.98	ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG	$6.92	1	$6.92
Pitch Black Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $7.08	ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG	$7.23	1	$7.23
Checklane 2-Pack Blister [Pawmot] (1-tab)Blister Pack / $14.86	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$14.62	2	$7.31
Lumiose City Mini Tin [Emboar & Inkay]Tin / $14.10	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$14.72	2	$7.36
Surging Sparks Booster PackBooster Pack / $7.90	SV08 Surging Sparks2024 Pokemon TCG	$7.69	1	$7.69
Lumiose City Mini Tin [Feraligatr & Budew]Tin / $16.19	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$15.88	2	$7.94
Pitch Black Half Booster BoxesBooster Box / $8.99	ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG	$8.99	36	$0.25
Greninja ex Battle Deck & 2 Booster BundleBooster Bundle / $15.99	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$15.99	6	$2.67
Perfect Order Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.08	ME03 Perfect Order2026 Pokemon TCG	$5.36	1	$5.36
Pokemon - Poke Ball Tin - Repeat Ball (Q4 2025)Tin / $22.65	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$22.64	4	$5.66
Triple Whammy Tin [Slaking]Tin / $23.16	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$23.26	4	$5.82
Chaos Rising Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.23	ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG	$6.13	1	$6.13
Pitch Black Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.58	ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG	$6.49	1	$6.49
Journey Together Booster PackBooster Pack / $6.73	SV09 Journey Together2025 Pokemon TCG	$6.61	1	$6.61

Continue the comparison

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Market Pulse is generated from PokeFocus market data and AI-assisted analysis, then checked against its structured source values before publication. It is factual market context for collector research, not a recommendation. Inspect current listing photos, seller details, condition, and live marketplace pricing before acting.