NeutralQualified moversAug 6, 2026Daily report

Market Value Divergence: Set Value Changes Reveal Distinct Sector Dynamics

Today's analysis highlights contrasting trends in set values and sealed products, showcasing a nuanced market landscape.

Market state

Among 1,188 qualified market movers, decliners led 679 to 509 with a recorded 7-day direction (57.2%).

Tracked

42,995

Qualified up

509

Qualified down

679

Top move

+37.0%

View set details

Qualified mover breadth

7-day direction among qualified movers from PokeFocus daily market snapshot

509

qualified movers up

42.8% of qualified movers

679

qualified movers down

57.2% of qualified movers

Based on 1,188 qualified movers with a recorded 7-day direction. The remaining 41,807 tracked cards are not counted as flat; they are outside this movement view and may include near-flat or otherwise unqualified records.

Since the previous report

What changed

35 more cards rose than in the previous report (509 today).
New to the lead coverage: SV01 Scarlet and Violet Base Set (2023) and SV09 Journey Together (2025).
Set Value Tracker is today's primary read; every available core market domain is covered with non-duplicative evidence.

Set read

Sets in Motion

The market's equal-weighted set average has seen a slight decline of -0.3% across 142 qualified sets, with an average tracked-card basket value of $1,407.58.

The strongest performing set this week is Prize Pack Series Cards (2022) with a 7-day estimated basket value increase of +3.8% and 826 card sales, while ME05 Pitch Black (2026) has underperformed with a -9.3% change despite 14,458 sales.

Grading read

Grading Watch

The 30-day PSA 10 premium snapshot shows Mew ex with a raw price of $8.99 and a PSA 10 price of $463.50, resulting in a premium multiple of 51.6x from 242 sales.

N's Zekrom follows with a raw price of $10.00 and a PSA 10 price of $405.00, yielding a 40.5x premium from 17 sales.

Exact evidence6 rowsPSA 10 Grading Premiums

Evidence table — PSA 10 Grading Premiums

Mew ex

Raw: $8.99
PSA 10: $463.50
Premium: 51.6x
PSA 10 Sales: 242

N's Zekrom

Raw: $10.00
PSA 10: $405.00
Premium: 40.5x
PSA 10 Sales: 17

Larvitar

Raw: $7.00
PSA 10: $253.75
Premium: 36.3x
PSA 10 Sales: 4

Ditto

Raw: $19.99
PSA 10: $685.00
Premium: 34.3x
PSA 10 Sales: 5

Spidops ex

Raw: $11.49
PSA 10: $390.37
Premium: 34.0x
PSA 10 Sales: 4

Alakazam ex

Raw: $7.29
PSA 10: $225.00
Premium: 30.9x
PSA 10 Sales: 5

Exact values for PSA 10 Grading Premiums
Card	Raw	PSA 10	Premium	PSA 10 Sales
Mew ex	$8.99	$463.50	51.6x	242
N's Zekrom	$10.00	$405.00	40.5x	17
Larvitar	$7.00	$253.75	36.3x	4
Ditto	$19.99	$685.00	34.3x	5
Spidops ex	$11.49	$390.37	34.0x	4
Alakazam ex	$7.29	$225.00	30.9x	5

Momentum read

Top Movers

Cinccino ex #105/086 from ME04 Chaos Rising has surged to $5.29, marking a 37.0% increase, while Hippowdon #053/131 from SV Prismatic Evolutions has reached $8.36, up 33.3%.

Shiinotic #194/191 from SV08 Surging Sparks also shows strong momentum with a 36.4% increase to $3.67.

Cinccino ex card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Hippowdon (Master Ball Pattern) card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Volume read

Volume Watch

Poliwrath (Base Set) has experienced a significant volume spike at 3.4 times typical sales, with 23 current sales compared to a baseline of 7, indicating heightened collector interest despite a price increase of 7.7%.

Conversely, Quick Ball (Secret) (SWSH01 Sword and Shield Base Set) has seen a 3.5x increase in sales, yet its price has plummeted by 100.0%.

Exact evidence3 rowsVolume Spike Evidence

Evidence table — Volume Spike Evidence

Poliwrath

Set: Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG
Market: $41.14
Price Change: +7.7%
Volume Multiple: 3.4x
Current 7d Sales: 23
Typical 7d Sales: 7

Electabuzz

Set: Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG
Market: $10.05
Price Change: -24.3%
Volume Multiple: 3.6x
Current 7d Sales: 10
Typical 7d Sales: 3

Quick Ball (Secret)

Set: SWSH01 Sword and Shield Base Set2020 Pokemon TCG
Market: $12.40
Price Change: -100.0%
Volume Multiple: 3.5x
Current 7d Sales: 13
Typical 7d Sales: 4

Exact values for Volume Spike Evidence
Card	Set	Market	Price Change	Volume Multiple	Current 7d Sales	Typical 7d Sales
Poliwrath	Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG	$41.14	+7.7%	3.4x	23	7
Electabuzz	Base Set1999 Pokemon TCG	$10.05	-24.3%	3.6x	10	3
Quick Ball (Secret)	SWSH01 Sword and Shield Base Set2020 Pokemon TCG	$12.40	-100.0%	3.5x	13	4

Price reset

Notable Declines

Manectric #089/084 from ME05 Pitch Black has seen a drastic decline of -72.5% to $3.19, supported by a high sales volume of 601.

Fomantis #085/084 from ME05 Pitch Black also fell significantly by -74.0% to $3.64, with 658 sales backing this downturn.

Manectric card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Bastiodon card image — Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Set read

Set Spotlight: SWSH10 Astral Radiance (2022)

SWSH10 Astral Radiance has shown a 7-day average price change of +2.6% with an average composite score of 15.

The set contains 23 tracked cards, with Radiant Greninja being the top card, indicating a steady interest among collectors.

Featured set profile

SWSH10 Astral Radiance2022 Pokemon TCG

Snapshot profile · Window: 7-day measurement window · Source: PokeFocus daily market snapshot

Year: 2022
Top Card: Radiant Greninja
Cards Tracked: 23
Composite Score: 15.00

Exact evidence1 rowSWSH10 Astral Radiance Evidence

Evidence table — SWSH10 Astral Radiance Evidence

SWSH10 Astral Radiance2022 Pokemon TCG

Year: 2022
Top Card: Radiant Greninja
Cards Tracked: 23
Composite Score: 15.00
Average 7d Change: +2.6%
High Momentum Cards: 0

Sector read

Set Comparisons

SV08 Surging Sparks (2024) has outperformed the market with a 7-day average increase of +2.1%, while SV09 Journey Together (2025) has underperformed by -2.1%.

The market average shows a neutral sentiment with no overall change, indicating a divergence in set performance.

Set highlights

7-day set movement vs market · 30-day card sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot

SWSH10 Astral Radiance2022 set

7d movement: +2.6%
Tracked card value: $948.34
Vs market: +2.6%
30d card sales: 473

SV08 Surging Sparks2024 set

7d movement: +2.1%
Tracked card value: $1,277.42
Vs market: +2.1%
30d card sales: 3,829

Sealed read

Sealed Movers

Sealed-product movement compares the 7-day sales median with the 30-day sales median.

Current prices, medians, and available sales windows are shown in the evidence rows below.

Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box product image — Sealed movers
Current price · 7-day median vs 30-day median · recent sales where available · PokeFocus sealed-product snapshots

Scarlet & Violet Booster Bundle product image — Sealed movers
Current price · 7-day median vs 30-day median · recent sales where available · PokeFocus sealed-product snapshots

Fair value read

Solid Value Plays

Shining Volcanion is currently priced at $7.36, with a modeled reference of $75.87, indicating a 930.8% model gap with 70% confidence.

Similarly, Ampharos EX is priced at $5.45 against a modeled reference of $52.25, representing an 858.7% gap with 53% confidence.

Exact evidence6 rowsCurrent Price vs Modeled Reference

Evidence table — Current Price vs Modeled Reference

Shining Volcanion

Market: $7.36
Confidence: 70%
Model Gap %: +930.8%
Modeled Reference: $75.87

Ampharos EX

Market: $5.45
Confidence: 53%
Model Gap %: +858.7%
Modeled Reference: $52.25

Lightning Energy (Secret)

Market: $8.50
Confidence: 59%
Model Gap %: +683.3%
Modeled Reference: $66.58

Hoopa EX

Market: $6.84
Confidence: 56%
Model Gap %: +609.9%
Modeled Reference: $48.56

Arven

Market: $9.98
Confidence: 71%
Model Gap %: +526.3%
Modeled Reference: $62.50

Trevenant VMAX (Secret)

Market: $6.79
Confidence: 61%
Model Gap %: +858.2%
Modeled Reference: $65.06

Exact values for Current Price vs Modeled Reference
Card	Market	Confidence	Model Gap %	Modeled Reference
Shining Volcanion	$7.36	70%	+930.8%	$75.87
Ampharos EX	$5.45	53%	+858.7%	$52.25
Lightning Energy (Secret)	$8.50	59%	+683.3%	$66.58
Hoopa EX	$6.84	56%	+609.9%	$48.56
Arven	$9.98	71%	+526.3%	$62.50
Trevenant VMAX (Secret)	$6.79	61%	+858.2%	$65.06

Pack read

Pack Value Plays

The Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack (ME05 Pitch Black 2026) is priced at $7.02 for 1 pack, while the Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon] (ME04 Chaos Rising 2026) is $21.47 for 3 packs, equating to $7.16 per pack.

Additionally, the Checklane 2-Pack Blister [Pawmot] (Miscellaneous Cards and Products 2018) is priced at $14.62 for 2 packs, resulting in $7.31 per pack.

Exact evidence16 rowsPrice per Pack — Sealed Product Comparison

Evidence table — Price per Pack — Sealed Product Comparison

Pokemon - Poke Ball Tin - Repeat Ball (Q4 2025) product image

Pokemon - Poke Ball Tin - Repeat Ball (Q4 2025)Tin / $22.65

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $22.78
Packs: 4
$/Pack: $5.70

Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack product image

Pitch Black Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $7.08

Set: ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $7.02
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $7.02

Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon] product image

Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon]Blister Pack / $20.86

Set: ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $21.47
Packs: 3
$/Pack: $7.16

Checklane 2-Pack Blister [Pawmot] (1-tab) product image

Checklane 2-Pack Blister [Pawmot] (1-tab)Blister Pack / $14.86

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $14.62
Packs: 2
$/Pack: $7.31

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Emboar & Inkay] product image

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Emboar & Inkay]Tin / $14.10

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $14.92
Packs: 2
$/Pack: $7.46

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Feraligatr & Budew] product image

Lumiose City Mini Tin [Feraligatr & Budew]Tin / $16.19

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $15.40
Packs: 2
$/Pack: $7.70

Surging Sparks Booster Pack product image

Surging Sparks Booster PackBooster Pack / $7.90

Set: SV08 Surging Sparks2024 Pokemon TCG
Market: $8.24
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $8.24

McDonald's 25th Anniversary Booster Pack product image

McDonald's 25th Anniversary Booster PackBooster Pack / $8.96

Set: McDonalds 25th Anniversary Promos2021 Pokemon TCG
Market: $8.49
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $8.49

Pitch Black Half Booster Boxes product image

Pitch Black Half Booster BoxesBooster Box / $8.99

Set: ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $8.99
Packs: 36
$/Pack: $0.25

Greninja ex Battle Deck & 2 Booster Bundle product image

Greninja ex Battle Deck & 2 Booster BundleBooster Bundle / $15.99

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $15.99
Packs: 6
$/Pack: $2.67

Triple Whammy Tin [Slaking] product image

Triple Whammy Tin [Slaking]Tin / $23.16

Set: Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG
Market: $22.34
Packs: 4
$/Pack: $5.59

Perfect Order Booster Pack product image

Perfect Order Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.08

Set: ME03 Perfect Order2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $5.88
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $5.88

Chaos Rising Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.23

Set: ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.15
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.15

Journey Together Booster Pack product image

Journey Together Booster PackBooster Pack / $6.73

Set: SV09 Journey Together2025 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.55
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.55

Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster Pack product image

Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $6.98

Set: ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.71
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.71

Pitch Black Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.58

Set: ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG
Market: $6.74
Packs: 1
$/Pack: $6.74

Exact values for Price per Pack — Sealed Product Comparison
Product	Set	Market	Packs	$/Pack
Pokemon - Poke Ball Tin - Repeat Ball (Q4 2025)Tin / $22.65	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$22.78	4	$5.70
Pitch Black Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $7.08	ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG	$7.02	1	$7.02
Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon]Blister Pack / $20.86	ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG	$21.47	3	$7.16
Checklane 2-Pack Blister [Pawmot] (1-tab)Blister Pack / $14.86	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$14.62	2	$7.31
Lumiose City Mini Tin [Emboar & Inkay]Tin / $14.10	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$14.92	2	$7.46
Lumiose City Mini Tin [Feraligatr & Budew]Tin / $16.19	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$15.40	2	$7.70
Surging Sparks Booster PackBooster Pack / $7.90	SV08 Surging Sparks2024 Pokemon TCG	$8.24	1	$8.24
McDonald's 25th Anniversary Booster PackBooster Pack / $8.96	McDonalds 25th Anniversary Promos2021 Pokemon TCG	$8.49	1	$8.49
Pitch Black Half Booster BoxesBooster Box / $8.99	ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG	$8.99	36	$0.25
Greninja ex Battle Deck & 2 Booster BundleBooster Bundle / $15.99	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$15.99	6	$2.67
Triple Whammy Tin [Slaking]Tin / $23.16	Miscellaneous Cards and Products2018 Pokemon TCG	$22.34	4	$5.59
Perfect Order Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.08	ME03 Perfect Order2026 Pokemon TCG	$5.88	1	$5.88
Chaos Rising Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.23	ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG	$6.15	1	$6.15
Journey Together Booster PackBooster Pack / $6.73	SV09 Journey Together2025 Pokemon TCG	$6.55	1	$6.55
Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster PackSleeved Booster Pack / $6.98	ME04 Chaos Rising2026 Pokemon TCG	$6.71	1	$6.71
Pitch Black Booster PackBooster Pack / $5.58	ME05 Pitch Black2026 Pokemon TCG	$6.74	1	$6.74

Continue the comparison

Related recent reports

Sep 15, 2026Mawile #246/217 from ME Ascended Heroes Leads Market

Sep 13, 2026Radiant Venusaur #004/078 from Pokemon GO Leads Market

Sep 12, 2026Charizard ex #196 from SV Scarlet and Violet Promo Cards Leads Market

Market Pulse is generated from PokeFocus market data and AI-assisted analysis, then checked against its structured source values before publication. It is factual market context for collector research, not a recommendation. Inspect current listing photos, seller details, condition, and live marketplace pricing before acting.