Market Value Divergence: Estimated Tracked-Card Basket Shifts Amid Neutral Sentiment
Today's analysis reveals distinct movements in set values, contrasting strong and weak performers against a backdrop of market neutrality.
Market state
Among 1,207 qualified market movers, decliners led 716 to 491 with a recorded 7-day direction (59.3%).
Tracked
42,977
Qualified up
491
Qualified down
716
Top move
+53.4%
Qualified mover breadth
7-day direction among qualified movers from PokeFocus daily market snapshot
491
qualified movers up
40.7% of qualified movers
716
qualified movers down
59.3% of qualified movers
Based on 1,207 qualified movers with a recorded 7-day direction. The remaining 41,770 tracked cards are not counted as flat; they are outside this movement view and may include near-flat or otherwise unqualified records.
Since the previous report
What changed
- 27 fewer cards rose than in the previous report (491 today).
- New to the lead coverage: SWSH10 Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery (2022) and SV Paldean Fates (2024).
- Set Value Tracker is today's primary read; every available core market domain is covered with non-duplicative evidence.
Set read
Sets in Motion
The estimated tracked-card basket for Prize Pack Series Cards shows a significant increase of 19% over the last 7 days, reaching $814.22 with 826 card sales, highlighting robust demand.
- In contrast, ME05 Pitch Black has experienced a decline of 9.6%, with its basket value at $955.80 amidst 13,673 sales, indicating a notable pullback in interest.
- The average market change is -0.2%, which underscores the divergence in performance among sets.
Set highlights
7-day set movement vs market · 30-day card sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot
- 7d movement
- +19.0%
- Tracked card value
- $814.22
- Vs market
- —
- 30d card sales
- 826
- 7d movement
- -9.6%
- Tracked card value
- $955.80
- Vs market
- —
- 30d card sales
- 13,673
Grading read
Grading Watch
The 30-day PSA 10 premium snapshot reveals that Ampharos commands a premium of 32.0x, with a raw price of $10.00 and a PSA 10 price of $319.98, based on 12 sales.
- Flareon also shows a strong premium of 25.5x, with raw and PSA 10 prices at $19.99 and $509.99, respectively, supported by 3 sales.
- Raw
- $10.00
- PSA 10
- $319.98
- Premium
- 32.0x
- PSA 10 Sales
- 12
- Raw
- $17.84
- PSA 10
- $463.50
- Premium
- 26.0x
- PSA 10 Sales
- 4
- Raw
- $19.99
- PSA 10
- $509.99
- Premium
- 25.5x
- PSA 10 Sales
- 3
- Raw
- $12.00
- PSA 10
- $272.50
- Premium
- 22.7x
- PSA 10 Sales
- 12
- Raw
- $9.25
- PSA 10
- $202.51
- Premium
- 21.9x
- PSA 10 Sales
- 3
- Raw
- $7.30
- PSA 10
- $155.00
- Premium
- 21.2x
- PSA 10 Sales
- 3
Momentum read
Top Movers
Hydrapple ex from the SV07 Stellar Crown set leads with a price of $3.45, reflecting a gain of 53.4%.
- Chandelure from SWSH11 Lost Origin follows closely at $4.66, up 45.6%.
- Radiant Greninja also shows strength at $4.23, increasing by 44.9%.
Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot
- Market
- $3.45
- 7d move
- +53.4%
- Sales
- 2 / 12 7d / 30d
- Market
- $4.66
- 7d move
- +45.6%
- Sales
- 3 / 27 7d / 30d
- Market
- $4.23
- 7d move
- +44.9%
- Sales
- 2 / 18 7d / 30d
- Market
- $6.58
- 7d move
- +32.9%
- Sales
- 0 / 16 7d / 30d
- Market
- $4.18
- 7d move
- +30.9%
- Sales
- 40 / 224 7d / 30d
- Market
- $4.45
- 7d move
- +29.6%
- Sales
- 4 / 23 7d / 30d
Volume read
Volume Watch
Electabuzz from the Base Set has surged to 10 sales, representing 3.6 times its typical volume, despite a price drop of 24.3%.
- This spike indicates heightened collector interest, albeit at a declining price point.
- Market
- $9.86
- Price Change
- -24.3%
- Volume Multiple
- 3.6x
- Current 7d Sales
- 10
- Typical 7d Sales
- 3
- Market
- $26.82
- Price Change
- +0.6%
- Volume Multiple
- 3.1x
- Current 7d Sales
- 15
- Typical 7d Sales
- 5
- Market
- $3.83
- Price Change
- 0.0%
- Volume Multiple
- 3.2x
- Current 7d Sales
- 43
- Typical 7d Sales
- 14
- Market
- $54.68
- Price Change
- +13.7%
- Volume Multiple
- 3.0x
- Current 7d Sales
- 31
- Typical 7d Sales
- 10
- Market
- $250.00
- Price Change
- 0.0%
- Volume Multiple
- 3.5x
- Current 7d Sales
- 38
- Typical 7d Sales
- 11
- Market
- $12.62
- Price Change
- -100.0%
- Volume Multiple
- 3.5x
- Current 7d Sales
- 13
- Typical 7d Sales
- 4
| Card | Set | Market | Price Change | Volume Multiple | Current 7d Sales | Typical 7d Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  | $9.86 | -24.3% | 3.6x | 10 | 3 |
 |  | $26.82 | +0.6% | 3.1x | 15 | 5 |
 |  | $3.83 | 0.0% | 3.2x | 43 | 14 |
 | | $54.68 | +13.7% | 3.0x | 31 | 10 |
 |  | $250.00 | 0.0% | 3.5x | 38 | 11 |
 |  | $12.62 | -100.0% | 3.5x | 13 | 4 |
Price reset
Notable Declines
Fomantis has seen a drastic decline of 74.0%, now priced at $3.61 with a sales volume of 658.
- Misty's Vitality also faces a significant drop of 24.5%, priced at $25.72, despite a high sales volume of 832, indicating a potential oversaturation in the market.
Recent price movement
Current price · 7-day change · 7-day / 30-day sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot
- Market
- $3.58
- 7d move
- -26.0%
- Sales
- 18 / 74 7d / 30d
- Market
- $6.04
- 7d move
- -22.9%
- Sales
- 17 / 82 7d / 30d
- Market
- $25.72
- 7d move
- -24.5%
- Sales
- 62 / 235 7d / 30d
- Market
- $7.01
- 7d move
- -20.8%
- Sales
- 13 / 85 7d / 30d
- Market
- $6.77
- 7d move
- -21.1%
- Sales
- 17 / 90 7d / 30d
- Market
- $3.61
- 7d move
- -74.0%
- Sales
- 55 / 233 7d / 30d
Set read
Set Spotlight: ME02 Phantasmal Flames
ME02 Phantasmal Flames has shown an average 7-day price change of +3.3% with an average composite score of 29.
- The top card, Mega Lopunny ex, has contributed to this positive trend, reflecting collector interest.
Featured set profile
Snapshot profile · Window: 7-day measurement window · Source: PokeFocus daily market snapshot
- Year
- 2025
- Top Card
- Mega Lopunny ex
- Cards Tracked
- 18
- Composite Score
- 29.00
- Year
- 2025
- Top Card
- Mega Lopunny ex
- Cards Tracked
- 18
- Composite Score
- 29.00
- Average 7d Change
- +3.3%
- High Momentum Cards
- 0
| Set | Year | Top Card | Cards Tracked | Composite Score | Average 7d Change | High Momentum Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2025 | Mega Lopunny ex | 18 | 29.00 | +3.3% | 0 |
Sector read
Set Comparisons
ME02 Phantasmal Flames has outperformed the market with a 7-day change of +3.3%, compared to the market average of -0.1%.
- SWSH10 Astral Radiance also shows positive momentum at +2.9%, while ME Mega Evolution Promo lags behind with a -4% change.
Set highlights
7-day set movement vs market · 30-day card sales · PokeFocus daily market snapshot
- 7d movement
- -4.0%
- Tracked card value
- $3,459.86
- Vs market
- -3.8%
- 30d card sales
- 5,276
- 7d movement
- +3.3%
- Tracked card value
- $1,195.60
- Vs market
- +3.4%
- 30d card sales
- 4,643
Sealed read
Sealed Movers
Sealed-product movement compares the 7-day sales median with the 30-day sales median.
- Current prices, medians, and available sales windows are shown in the evidence rows below.
Sealed movers
Current price · 7-day median vs 30-day median · recent sales where available · PokeFocus sealed-product snapshots
- Pitch Black Elite Trainer BoxME05 Pitch Black (2026)
- Current
- $77.37
- Median comparison
- +67.7%
- 7d / 30d median
- $122.58 / $73.10 7d / 30d
- 30d sales
- 6
- Scarlet & Violet Booster BundleSV01 Scarlet and Violet Base Set (2023)
- Current
- $105.02
- Median comparison
- +49.7%
- 7d / 30d median
- $97.50 / $65.11 7d / 30d
- 30d sales
- 5
- Sinnoh Star Mini Tin DisplayMiscellaneous Cards and Products (2018)
- Current
- $242.07
- Median comparison
- -45.0%
- 7d / 30d median
- $71.50 / $129.99 7d / 30d
- 30d sales
- 49
- Paldea Evolved Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) CaseSV02 Paldea Evolved (2023)
- Current
- $6,000.00
- Median comparison
- +20.0%
- 7d / 30d median
- $7,497.99 / $6,248.50 7d / 30d
- 30d sales
- 3
- Trick or Trade BOOster Bundle 2024 - Mini Booster PackTrick or Trade BOOster Bundle 2024 (2024)
- Current
- $2.18
- Median comparison
- +15.6%
- 7d / 30d median
- $2.27 / $1.96 7d / 30d
- 30d sales
- 17
- Prismatic Evolutions Booster PackSV Prismatic Evolutions (2025)
- Current
- $14.43
- Median comparison
- +15.5%
- 7d / 30d median
- $17.10 / $14.81 7d / 30d
- 30d sales
- 7
Fair value read
Solid Value Plays
Mr.
- Mime GX is currently priced at $5.66, with a modeled reference price of $103.62, indicating a model gap of 1730.7% with 51% confidence.
- Similarly, Ampharos GX shows a current price of $8.52 against a modeled reference of $104.86, marking an 1130.8% gap with 50% confidence.
- Market
- $5.66
- Confidence
- 51%
- Model Gap %
- +1730.7%
- Modeled Reference
- $103.62
- Market
- $8.52
- Confidence
- 50%
- Model Gap %
- +1130.8%
- Modeled Reference
- $104.86
- Market
- $6.84
- Confidence
- 52%
- Model Gap %
- +851.9%
- Modeled Reference
- $65.11
- Market
- $6.57
- Confidence
- 62%
- Model Gap %
- +756.6%
- Modeled Reference
- $56.28
- Market
- $7.10
- Confidence
- 79%
- Model Gap %
- +746.2%
- Modeled Reference
- $60.08
- Market
- $5.31
- Confidence
- 53%
- Model Gap %
- +650.7%
- Modeled Reference
- $39.86
| Card | Market | Confidence | Model Gap % | Modeled Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | $5.66 | 51% | +1730.7% | $103.62 |
 | $8.52 | 50% | +1130.8% | $104.86 |
 | $6.84 | 52% | +851.9% | $65.11 |
 | $6.57 | 62% | +756.6% | $56.28 |
 | $7.10 | 79% | +746.2% | $60.08 |
 | $5.31 | 53% | +650.7% | $39.86 |
Pack read
Pack Value Plays
The Lumiose City Mini Tin [Gallade & Goomy] offers 2 packs for $14.06, equating to $7.03 per pack.
- The Pitch Black 3-Pack Blister [Binacle] is priced at $22.59 for 3 packs, resulting in $7.53 per pack, indicating competitive pricing in the sealed product market.
![Lumiose City Mini Tin [Gallade & Goomy] product image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/685579_200w.jpg)
- Market
- $14.06
- Packs
- 2
- $/Pack
- $7.03
![Perfect Order 3 Pack Blister [Chikorita] product image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/672393_200w.jpg)
- Market
- $21.55
- Packs
- 3
- $/Pack
- $7.18
![Lumiose City Mini Tin [Meganium & Meowstic] product image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/685576_200w.jpg)
- Market
- $14.72
- Packs
- 2
- $/Pack
- $7.36
![Lumiose City Mini Tin [Salamence & Litleo] product image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/685575_200w.jpg)
- Market
- $14.96
- Packs
- 2
- $/Pack
- $7.48
![Pitch Black 3-Pack Blister [Binacle] product image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/692938_200w.jpg)
- Market
- $22.59
- Packs
- 3
- $/Pack
- $7.53
![Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Toxel] product image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/684457_200w.jpg)
- Market
- $7.87
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $7.87
- Market
- $7.99
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $7.99
![Perfect Order Single Pack Blister [Makuhita] product image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/672410_200w.jpg)
- Market
- $8.08
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $8.08
- Market
- $8.44
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $8.44
- Market
- $8.99
- Packs
- 36
- $/Pack
- $0.25
- Market
- $15.99
- Packs
- 6
- $/Pack
- $2.67
- Market
- $6.04
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $6.04
- Market
- $6.21
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $6.21
- Market
- $6.60
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $6.60
- Market
- $6.66
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $6.66
- Market
- $6.70
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $6.70
- Market
- $6.78
- Packs
- 1
- $/Pack
- $6.78
Market Pulse is generated from PokeFocus market data and AI-assisted analysis, then checked against its structured source values before publication. It is factual market context for collector research, not a recommendation. Inspect current listing photos, seller details, condition, and live marketplace pricing before acting.